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    最大可能損失MPL和營業中斷值的計算

    歡迎來電services@isa-hsse.com或加微信13540615182進行技術交流。

    ① Potential economic loss of person injury(RMB):

    2215271 ≤M-MPL≤ 2512817

    Remark:

    Tianjin xxx Chemical Co., Ltd.  has excellent process equipment in good condition, high level of automation, more reliable operation of safety facilities, complete HSE manage system in function since it was put into operation, and the risks are generally controllable. However, after all, it is a typical chemical company, which is a factory always using hazardous chemical, and the plant involves one major hazardous source at the first level, one major hazardous source at the third level and one major hazardous source at the fourth level, as well as the key supervised hazardous process - polymerization process, and there are many contractors working in the plant, so there exists still risks such as fire, explosion,poisoning and asphyxiation, which may lead to accidents., which may lead to accidents. Therefore, we assume that when barriers go wrong, such as liquid oxygen station occur fire and explosion, then the number of people who may be directly affected at the front-line is 2 potential fatalities, 1 potential serious injury not yet disabled, and 1 potential minor injury hospitalized, and calculated with the statutory death compensation standard of 985660RMB in 2023.

    ② The maximum possible asset loss A-MPL is: 404114985.3RMB.

    It includes the cost of accident disposal and the economic loss value of assets, such as the cost of cleaning up accident scene, the cost of investigation, the cost of on-site inspection, the cost of compensation, reconstruction, inflation, etc., but it does not include the loss of person injury.

    The plant is located within the chemical park, and the plan layout and safety distance etc. meet the design specification requirements, so the likelihood of major losses due to fire and explosion disasters in the vicinity is low. Even through the plant is located within Bohai Bay, which is seldom affected by typhoons and floods, and the design and construction of the plant also fully consider the factors of earthquake, typhoon and rainstorm prevention, and the structure meets the requirements of the design specifications.

    Therefore, the major economic losses of the factory mainly come from internal, especially from fire and explosion accidents.  The equipment and facilities in the production area are defined as major hazardous sources and are of high value. Assuming that a fire /explosion occurs when all safety protection measures fail, but the safety protection distance of each building (structure) in the plant meets the code requirements, and the production area, reprocessing and warehouse and office areas are relatively independent from each other, so the accident that causes the greatest loss at one time is most likely to be in the production unit and tank area.In comprehensive consideration of the dangerous unit asset value A, inflation factor R, the construction/reconstruction period T, the cost of accident disposal C includes the cost of cleaning up the accident scene, the cost of investigation the On-site inspection cost, accident compensation cost, etc. The cost of restart-up M includes lack of detailed design scheme and data support, investment adjustment. and according to the site conditions and asset balance sheet, the dangerous unit is divided into three parts in total: production unit area (including tank area) A1, product inventory (including storage room ) A2, housing buildings (including fixed equipment) A3. 

    The corresponding values of R, T, C and M are shown in the following table.

    A1:351404335 

    T1:2 year

    C1:10%

    M1:5%

    R:3%

    A2:77925022 

    T2:1 year

    C2:10%

    M2:2%

    R:3%

    A3:29894851 

    T3:1 year

    C3:14.5%

    M3:10%

    R:3%

    Note: 10 million yuan of reprocessing and warehouse buildings are allocated to A2.

    According to the formula xxx yields.

    The maximum possible asset loss A-MPL = 404114985.3.

    ③ Fraud risk level: negligible risk

    ④ Potential total economic loss(EML):200,847,907.80RMB(Not include M-MPL)

    It refers to the sum of all losses after an accident, including BI and A-MPL,and then calculated based on the likelihood of accident occurrence. The calculation formula is as follows:.

    Based on the total risk level L3, the range of EML ratio K is 0.35-0.64. Since no fatality occurring in the factory,  take the average value is 0.495.

    BI+A-MPL*K

    The result is:810890.08+404114985.3*0.495=EML=200,847,907.80

    ⑤ Single potential business interruption value BI value: ¥810,890.08

    Factory business occurs business interruption mainly due to power outages, serious natural disasters or fire and explosion accidents. The plant is powered by dual circuit power supply system and has an emergency generator system and UPS system. Since the plant has been put into operation, there has not been any accident of sudden power failure resulting in production interruption, and the reliability of power supply is extremely high. From the assessment of regional geological conditions and natural disasters, the likelihood of business interruption due to natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods at the plant is relatively low. After all, the plant is a typical chemical company, which using hazardous chemical, involving major hazardous sources and key supervised hazardous processes, and there are many many contractors working in the plant, considering that the occurrence of accidents is  occasional, so the biggest likelihood of business interruption is from the impact of fire and explosion. Considering the strict requirement of the process of chemical company stopping for maintenance and recommissioning work, it is estimated that normal production can be resumed after 7 days of shutdown. Therefore the loss of production stoppage is.

    872300*7=6106100

    Calculations based on a projected marginal profit margin of 13.28% in 2023 result in a single potential shutdown loss of

    6106100*13.28% = ¥810,890.08

    Note: The impact factor of this business interruption does not consider the government's administrative factors.

    ① 潛在的傷亡經濟損失為(RMB):

    2215271 ≤潛在傷亡經濟損失M-MPL≤ 2512817

    備注:

    天津xx化學有限責任公司的工藝裝備水平優良,自動化程度高,安全設施可靠運行,自從2010年投產至今HSE體系完備并運轉良好,風險總體可控。但畢竟是典型的化工企業,屬于危險化學品使用單位,工廠涉及一級重大危險源1個,三級重大危險源1個和四級重大危險源1個,以及重點監管危險工藝—聚合工藝,且廠區作業外協單位較多,因此仍存在火災爆炸和中毒窒息等危險性,可能致使事故發生。于是,我們假設當企業最薄弱的環節發生嚴重事故時,比如爆炸或火災,其可能在第一線直接受到沖擊影響的人數為潛在死亡2人,潛在重傷未殘1人,潛在輕傷住院1人,并以2023年法定死亡賠償標準 985660RMB計算。

    ② 最大可能的資產損失A-MPL為:404114985.3元。

    它包括事故處理費用+資產的經濟損失價值,如清除事故殘余費用、調查事故費用、現場檢查費用、事故賠償費用,如重建費用,通貨膨脹等,但不包括人傷亡的損失。

    工廠位于化工園區內,平面布置和安全距離等滿足設計規范要求,因此受附近的火災爆炸災害影響而導致重大損失的可能性較小。另外,工廠位于渤海灣內,很少受到臺風和洪水的影響,而且工廠在建筑設計和施工時也充分考慮防地震、防臺風和防暴雨的因素,結構滿足設計規范要求。

    因此,工廠發生重大經濟損失的可能主要源于企業自身,尤其是火災爆炸事故。生產區域內的設備設施有重大危險源且價值較高,假設所有的安全防護措施都失效的情況發生了火災爆炸,但廠區內各建(構)筑物的安全防護距離滿足規范要求,生產區域、后處理及倉庫和辦公區域之間相對獨立,因此一次性造成的最大損失的事故最有可能是在生產裝置及罐區。綜合考慮到危險單位資產價值 A、通貨膨脹因素R,新建/重建工期T,清除事故殘余費用、調查事故費用、現場檢查費用、事故賠償費用等 C,缺少詳細設計方案和數據支持,投資調整 M,并根據現場狀況和資產表,將危險單元共計分為三部分:生產裝置區(含罐區)A1、產品庫存(含庫房)A2、房屋建筑物(含固定裝備)A3,其相對應的R、T、C、M取值見下表:

    A1:351404335元

    T1:2年

    C1:10%

    M1:5%

    R:3%

    A2:77925022元

    T2:1年

    C2:14.5%

    M2:2%

    R:3%

    A3:29894851元

    T3:1.5

    C3:14.5%

    M3:10%

    R:3%

    備注:后處理及倉庫建筑物1000萬元劃到A2中。

    根據計算公式xxxx得出:

    最大可能的資產損失A-MPL=404114985.3元。

    ③ 企業道德風險等級:可忽略風險

    企業或項目可能經濟總損失EML:200,847,907.80(不含人身傷害損失)

    它指發生事故后所有的損失之和,包括BIA-MPL,即損失包括利潤損失和財產的損失,然后基于可能發生事故的概率進行計算。計算公式如下:

    基于總體風險等級L3,EML ratio取值K的范圍為0.35-0.64,因工廠未出現過死亡事故,故取平均值0.495。

    BI+A-MPL*K

    結果為:810890.08+404114985.3*0.495=EML=200,847,907.80

    ④ 單次潛在營業中斷值BI值:810,890.08

    工廠營業發生營業中斷的情況主要為停電、嚴重自然災害或火災爆炸泄露事故。工廠實行兩路電源供電,且有應急發電機系統和UPS系統,投產至今尚未發生過突然斷電導致生產中斷的事故,供電可靠性極高。從區域地質條件及自然災害評估情況看,工廠因地震洪水等自然災害而導致的營業中斷可能性較小。畢竟工廠是典型的化工企業,屬于危險化學品使用單位,涉及重大危險源和重點監管危險工藝,且廠區作業外協單位較多,考慮事故的發生有其偶然性,因此工廠營業中斷的最大可能是來自火災爆炸的影響??紤]化工企業停車檢修復工流程的嚴格性,按照停產7天后能恢復正常生產估算。因此停產損失為:

    872300*7=6106100元

    根據2023年預測的邊際利潤率為13.28%進行計算,則單次潛在停產損失為:

    6106100*13.28%=810,890.08元

    備注:該營業中斷的影響因素不考慮政府的行政管理因素。